Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.485796 22.230996 24.114591 26.308787 28.807467 31.579700 34.909571
2025-08-31 17.530132 19.883988 22.599021 26.001303 30.207539 35.315492 42.113628
2025-09-07 15.507648 18.180530 21.423482 25.729424 31.427957 38.914867 49.871062
2025-09-14 14.060513 16.918035 20.528059 25.555951 32.609549 42.553084 58.470366
2025-09-21 12.871408 15.808968 19.642279 25.195099 33.380309 45.658390 67.019210
2025-09-28 12.368099 15.514992 19.762051 26.177054 36.160687 52.234732 83.143766
2025-10-05 11.603012 14.780397 19.175966 26.027136 37.145729 56.090243 95.731531
2025-10-12 10.973631 14.170733 18.692724 25.945914 38.186595 60.213198 110.420446
2025-10-19 10.541265 13.798176 18.508179 26.286801 39.960446 66.054020 131.589165
2025-10-26 10.040090 13.284235 18.059755 26.135747 40.820081 70.285106 151.046263
2025-11-02 9.559001 12.764725 17.556395 25.829144 41.329995 73.892718 170.947102
2025-11-09 9.200208 12.403047 17.267064 25.849543 42.456355 79.146688 199.648076
2025-11-16 8.804289 11.967637 16.838706 25.600382 43.050676 83.440676 229.247058
2025-11-23 8.441862 11.563598 16.433400 25.353696 43.620638 87.888944 264.264178
2025-11-30 8.110961 11.190071 16.051984 25.112151 44.166367 92.476227 305.767034
2025-12-07 7.822346 10.867194 15.732299 24.953380 44.870240 97.765722 359.005125
2025-12-14 7.523479 10.512457 15.335653 24.608471 45.097619 101.763222 412.317062
2025-12-21 7.464874 10.539585 15.590644 25.558533 48.538536 117.262382 586.590540
2025-12-28 7.233030 10.271823 15.314345 25.414445 49.279616 124.082784 715.588819
2026-01-04 7.027079 10.036827 15.081191 25.336292 50.180040 131.952980 895.859885
2026-01-11 6.894478 9.917005 15.045354 25.665631 52.217801 145.364210 1255.497493
2026-01-18 6.702188 9.688028 14.798010 25.519811 52.940906 153.796297 1629.239434
2026-01-25 6.500735 9.435245 14.493493 25.223704 53.198341 160.400595 2073.646364